With preventive measures in place, the possibility of the infection can be reduced to an average of just two-and-a-half persons per patient in the same period. Preventive measures like lock down and social distancing can close the multiplication formula to 50%. But all depends on the hands of the common people, how they will accept the challenges. Countries like USA, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, UK have failed so far in implanting the social distancing and lock down in true sense. The causality rate of Italy & the infection growth in USA just gives a reminder that we are not adopting right measures.
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) study, says that current 'R0' or R naught for the coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4. 'R0' is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It tells the average number of people who will catch a disease from one infected person. "If we take the 'R0' to be 2.5 then one positive person can infect 406 people in 30 days, if the lockdown and social distancing measures are not in place, but if social exposure is reduced by 75 per cent then that one sick person will only be able to infect only 2.5 persons,"
If you look at the India's daily progress then you can simply guess we are gathering almost 500-600 new people every day in the list. The equation is simple if more people gets this infection the death ratio will increase in unimaginable rate. Mostly the elderly persons are in danger for our undisciplined behavior.
So, the infection rate should be in control unless and until we find out a proper vaccine or effective lifesaving treatment protocol. So, as far as my concern the lock down should be continued with more strict rules for few more months to save our civilization. Lifting it could be fatal for a country like India, where the people doesn't follow the guidelines and by doing this, we may lose thousands of lives. So, it will be batter to continue as a lifesaving measure.
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